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Elections

Ukraine election held by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

3%chancedown 2 pts24h

  • Vol$2.5M
  • 24h$136
  • Liquidity$12k
  • Open interest$28k
  • Closesin 103d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 2% to 3%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 3% chance (down 2 pts in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC. Over 30 days it is up 1 pt. $2.5M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 13 February 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Ukraine election held by" trades at 3% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: up 1 pt.
  • Traded: $2.5M in total, $136 in 24 hours; open interest $28k; liquidity $12k.
  • Listed to close on 13 February 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/ukraine-election-held-in-2025”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes3%down 238+3674
No97%up 21.03-3674

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Time. It closes on 13 February 2027 (about 103 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 3% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
  • Thin book: about $12k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Closes:
13 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 3% means about 3¢ a share and roughly 38x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Ukraine election held by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 3%, which is decimal odds of 38 or American +3674. A Yes share costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 13 February 2027 (13 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 103 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.5M in total and $136 in the last 24 hours, with about $28k in open positions (open interest) and $12k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Ukraine election held by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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