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Crypto

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

3%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$5.4M
  • 24h$18k
  • Liquidity$89k
  • Open interest$1.5M
  • Closesin 60d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 3% to 3%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 3% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC. $5.4M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026" trades at 3% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $5.4M in total, $18k in 24 hours; open interest $1.5M; liquidity $89k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes3%n/a36+3536
No97%n/a1.03-3536

What would move this market

  • The spot price first: every move toward or away from a level reprices it within minutes. Then ETF flows, rate decisions and inflation prints, regulation and big holders buying or selling.
  • At 3% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source:
intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 3% means about 3¢ a share and roughly 36x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 3%, which is decimal odds of 36 or American +3536. A Yes share costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$5.4M in total and $18k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.5M in open positions (open interest) and $89k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 09:12 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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