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Tech

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: ↑5k

98%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$8.2M
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$12k
  • Open interest$70k
  • Closesin 61d
  • ↑5k
  • ↑5.5k
  • ↑6k
  • ↑6.5k
↑5k chance over 30 days: from 90% to 98%.

In short

↑5k leads at 98%, ahead of ↑5.5k (95%) and ↑6k (89%), as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC. ↑5k is up 8 pts over 30 days. 8 outcomes are priced and $8.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • ↑5k, the favourite in "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026", trades at 98% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: up 8 pts.
  • Traded: $8.2M in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $70k; liquidity $12k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on ↑5k 3¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
↑5k98%down 11.02-4344
↑5.5k95%01.05-2028
↑6k89%up 21.13-770
↑6.5k69%up 11.46-217
↑7k50%up 122.00-100
↑7.5k19%down 25.4+441
↑10k7%014+1270
↑12.5k5%n/a20+1861

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • ↑7k50%

    up 12 pts in 24h

  • ↑6k89%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • ↑7.5k19%

    down 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when ↑5k moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · ↑5k up 5 pts (93% to 98%)

What would move this market

  • Launches, benchmark and leaderboard results, filings (an S-1 before an IPO), earnings and market caps, and regulators' decisions.
  • A close race: ↑5k leads ↑5.5k by 2 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
  • Thin book: about $12k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution source:
www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 98% means about 98¢ a share and roughly 1.02x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC, ↑5k at 98%, then ↑5.5k at 95% and ↑6k at 89%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

↑5k: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and up 8 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$8.2M in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $70k in open positions (open interest) and $12k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:48 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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