PredictRips

PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works

World

Iran leadership change by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: June 30, 2027

28%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$28.5M
  • 24h$61k
  • Liquidity$281k
  • Open interest$1.1M
  • Closesin 241d
  • June 30, 2027
  • December 31
  • November 30
June 30, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 23% to 28%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC: June 30, 2027 28%, December 31 14%, November 30 9%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $28.5M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 July 2027.
Key numbers
  • June 30, 2027, the favourite in "Iran leadership change by", trades at 28% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: up 5 pts.
  • Traded: $28.5M in total, $61k in 24 hours; open interest $1.1M; liquidity $281k.
  • Listed to close on 1 July 2027; bid-ask spread on June 30, 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/iran-leadership-change-by”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
June 30, 202728%down 13.6+264
December 3114%down 17.4+641
November 309%down 112+1076

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • June 30, 202728%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • December 3114%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • November 309%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when June 30, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · June 30, 2027 up 7 pts (26% to 33%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 28% means about 28¢ a share and roughly 3.6x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

Your first pack is free

Rip a pack of live politics markets

Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.

Rip your free pack

18+. Packs are random and carry a house edge: pack value at open is about 90% of the price.

FAQ

What are the odds on "Iran leadership change by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC, June 30, 2027 at 28%, then December 31 at 14% and November 30 at 9%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

June 30, 2027: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and up 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 July 2027 (1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 241 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$28.5M in total and $61k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.1M in open positions (open interest) and $281k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:09 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Iran leadership change by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

Related markets

Odds today

Read first