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World
US strike on Colombia by...?
21%chanceup 3 pts
- Vol$2.3M
- 24h$996
- Liquidity$27k
- Open interest$78k
- Closesin 60d
In short
- Yes on "US strike on Colombia by" trades at 21% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 18:51 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 3 pts; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: up 3 pts.
- Traded: $2.3M in total, $996 in 24 hours; open interest $78k; liquidity $27k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | up 3 | 4.9 | +388 | ||
| No | 80% | down 2 | 1.26 | -388 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes down 5 pts (20% to 14%)
· Yes up 6 pts (23% to 30%)
· Yes up 6 pts (23% to 28%)
· Yes down 23 pts (51% to 28%)
· Yes up 37 pts (14% to 51%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- Thin book: about $27k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 21% means about 21¢ a share and roughly 4.9x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "US strike on Colombia by...?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 18:51 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 21%, which is decimal odds of 4.9 or American +388. A Yes share costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: up 3 pts in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and up 3 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:51 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.3M in total and $996 in the last 24 hours, with about $78k in open positions (open interest) and $27k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:51 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "US strike on Colombia by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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