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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: 1

92%chanceup 3 pts24h

  • Vol$3.8M
  • 24h$10k
  • Liquidity$268k
  • Open interest$263k
  • Closesin 119d
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
1 chance over 30 days: from 73% to 92%.

In short

1 leads at 92%, ahead of 2 (7%) and 3 (0.3%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC. 1 is up 19 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $3.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 2 March 2027.
Key numbers
  • 1, the favourite in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record", trades at 92% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 3 pts; 7 days: up 4 pts; 30 days: up 19 pts.
  • Traded: $3.8M in total, $10k in 24 hours; open interest $263k; liquidity $268k.
  • Listed to close on 2 March 2027; bid-ask spread on 1 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
192%up 31.09-1076
27%down 115+1438

4 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • 192%

    up 3 pts in 24h

  • 27%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when 1 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · 1 up 7 pts (72% to 78%)

  2. · 1 up 6 pts (66% to 72%)

  3. · 1 up 9 pts (57% to 66%)

  4. · 1 down 8 pts (64% to 55%)

  5. · 1 down 6 pts (71% to 64%)

What would move this market

  • Nominations, release dates, chart and box-office numbers, and announcements by the people involved.
  • 1 leads 2 by 85 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source:
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
Closes:
2 Mar 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 92% means about 92¢ a share and roughly 1.09x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC, 1 at 92%, then 2 at 7% and 3 at 0.3%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

1: up 3 pts in 24 hours, up 4 pts in 7 days and up 19 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 2 March 2027 (2 Mar 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 119 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$3.8M in total and $10k in the last 24 hours, with about $263k in open positions (open interest) and $268k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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