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Elections · Spain

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Alberto Núñez Feijóo

84%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$2.6M
  • 24h$15k
  • Liquidity$1.6M
  • Open interest$433k
  • Closesin 27d
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo
  • Pedro Sánchez
  • Santiago Abascal
  • Isabel Díaz Ayuso
Alberto Núñez Feijóo chance over 30 days: from 81% to 84%.

In short

Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 84%, ahead of Pedro Sánchez (13%) and Santiago Abascal (2%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC. Alberto Núñez Feijóo is up 3 pts over 30 days. 3 outcomes are priced and $2.6M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 30 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the favourite in "Next Prime Minister of Spain", trades at 84% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 3 pts; 30 days: up 3 pts.
  • Traded: $2.6M in total, $15k in 24 hours; open interest $433k; liquidity $1.6M.
  • Listed to close on 30 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Alberto Núñez Feijóo 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/next-prime-minister-of-spain”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Alberto Núñez Feijóo84%n/a1.19-525
Pedro Sánchez13%up 27.4+643
Santiago Abascal2%041+3982

17 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Pedro Sánchez13%

    up 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Alberto Núñez Feijóo moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Alberto Núñez Feijóo up 7 pts (74% to 81%)

  2. · Alberto Núñez Feijóo down 7 pts (81% to 74%)

  3. · Alberto Núñez Feijóo up 12 pts (70% to 82%)

  4. · Alberto Núñez Feijóo down 11 pts (81% to 70%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads Pedro Sánchez by 71 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
30 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 84% means about 84¢ a share and roughly 1.19x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Next Prime Minister of Spain"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC, Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 84%, then Pedro Sánchez at 13% and Santiago Abascal at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo: unchanged in 24 hours, up 3 pts in 7 days and up 3 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 30 November 2026 (30 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 27 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.6M in total and $15k in the last 24 hours, with about $433k in open positions (open interest) and $1.6M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Next Prime Minister of Spain?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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