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Politics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

8%chance024h

  • Vol$2.3M
  • 24h$17
  • Liquidity$42k
  • Open interest$87k
  • Closesin 61d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 16% to 8%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 8% chance (down 1 pt in 24 hours), as of 1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC. Over 30 days it is down 8 pts. $2.3M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by" trades at 8% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: down 8 pts.
  • Traded: $2.3M in total, $17 in 24 hours; open interest $87k; liquidity $42k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes8%013+1150
No92%up 11.09-1150

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 61 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 8% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
  • Thin book: about $42k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 8% means about 8¢ a share and roughly 13x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 8%, which is decimal odds of 13 or American +1150. A Yes share costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and down 8 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.3M in total and $17 in the last 24 hours, with about $87k in open positions (open interest) and $42k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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