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World
Will Alberta join the US?
2%chance0
- Vol$2.2M
- 24h$81
- Liquidity$39k
- Open interest$14k
- Closesin 59d
In short
- Yes on "Will Alberta join the US" trades at 2% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: up 1 pt.
- Traded: $2.2M in total, $81 in 24 hours; open interest $14k; liquidity $39k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0 | 43 | +4248 | ||
| No | 98% | 0 | 1.02 | -4248 |
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- At 2% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
- Thin book: about $39k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 2% means about 2¢ a share and roughly 43x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Will Alberta join the US?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 2%, which is decimal odds of 43 or American +4248. A Yes share costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.2M in total and $81 in the last 24 hours, with about $14k in open positions (open interest) and $39k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Will Alberta join the US?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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