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World
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%chancen/a
- Vol$28.9M
- 24h$39k
- Liquidity$588k
- Open interest$4.7M
- Closesin 60d
In short
- Yes on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027" trades at 5% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $28.9M in total, $39k in 24 hours; open interest $4.7M; liquidity $588k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | n/a | 22 | +2122 | ||
| No | 96% | n/a | 1.05 | -2122 |
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 5% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 5% means about 5¢ a share and roughly 22x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 5%, which is decimal odds of 22 or American +2122. A Yes share costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$28.9M in total and $39k in the last 24 hours, with about $4.7M in open positions (open interest) and $588k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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