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World
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
5%chancedown 3 pts
- Vol$18.5M
- 24h$14k
- Liquidity$63k
- Open interest$173k
- Closesin 60d
In short
- Yes on "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by" trades at 5% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 3 pts; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $18.5M in total, $14k in 24 hours; open interest $173k; liquidity $63k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | down 3 | 20 | +1900 | ||
| No | 95% | up 3 | 1.05 | -1900 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes up 5 pts (7% to 12%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 5% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 5% means about 5¢ a share and roughly 20x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 5%, which is decimal odds of 20 or American +1900. A Yes share costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: down 3 pts in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$18.5M in total and $14k in the last 24 hours, with about $173k in open positions (open interest) and $63k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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