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Elections · Taiwan
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
67%chanceup 1 pt
- Vol$2.8M
- 24h$54k
- Liquidity$469k
- Open interest$945k
- Closesin 26d
- Chiang Wan-an
- Puma Shen
- Kuo Hsi
In short
- Chiang Wan-an, the favourite in "Taipei Mayor Election Winner", trades at 67% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:32 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: down 14 pts.
- Traded: $2.8M in total, $54k in 24 hours; open interest $945k; liquidity $469k.
- Listed to close on 29 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Chiang Wan-an 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Wan-an | 67% | up 1 | 1.50 | -199 | ||
| Puma Shen | 34% | down 1 | 2.9 | +191 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Chiang Wan-an67%
Puma Shen34%
Timeline of big moves
· Chiang Wan-an down 5 pts (72% to 67%)
· Chiang Wan-an up 8 pts (68% to 77%)
· Chiang Wan-an down 4 pts (69% to 65%)
· Chiang Wan-an up 6 pts (63% to 69%)
· Chiang Wan-an up 7 pts (56% to 64%)
· Chiang Wan-an down 5 pts (63% to 57%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- Chiang Wan-an leads Puma Shen by 32 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (db.cec.gov.tw/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
- Resolution source:
- db.cec.gov.tw/
- Closes:
- 29 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 67% means about 67¢ a share and roughly 1.50x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Taipei Mayor Election Winner"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:32 UTC, Chiang Wan-an at 67%, then Puma Shen at 34% and Kuo Hsi at 0.1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Chiang Wan-an: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and down 14 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:32 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 29 November 2026 (29 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 26 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with db.cec.gov.tw/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.8M in total and $54k in the last 24 hours, with about $945k in open positions (open interest) and $469k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:32 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Taipei Mayor Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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