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World

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

3%chance024h

  • Vol$29.7M
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$86k
  • Open interest$324k
  • Closesin 59d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 6% to 3%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 3% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. Over 30 days it is down 2 pts. $29.7M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by" trades at 3% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: down 2 pts.
  • Traded: $29.7M in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $324k; liquidity $86k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes3%032+3075
No97%01.03-3075

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Yes moved 5 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Yes up 5 pts (3% to 9%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 3% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 3% means about 3¢ a share and roughly 32x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 3%, which is decimal odds of 32 or American +3075. A Yes share costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$29.7M in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $324k in open positions (open interest) and $86k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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