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World

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

4%chance024h

  • Vol$14.2M
  • 24h$40
  • Liquidity$62k
  • Open interest$43k
  • Closesin 61d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 3% to 4%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 4% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC. Over 30 days it is up 1 pt. $14.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by" trades at 4% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 1 pt.
  • Traded: $14.2M in total, $40 in 24 hours; open interest $43k; liquidity $62k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes4%026+2497
No96%01.04-2497

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 61 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 4% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 4% means about 4¢ a share and roughly 26x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 4%, which is decimal odds of 26 or American +2497. A Yes share costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$14.2M in total and $40 in the last 24 hours, with about $43k in open positions (open interest) and $62k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:49 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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