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Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
In short
Yes down 9 points in the last 24 hours
- 49¢
- 52¢
- $1 per share (about 2.1x on Yes)
- 3¢
- $42k
- $48k
What this market means
Traders buy Yes or No shares. Each share pays $1 if it is right and nothing if it is wrong, so the price is the crowd's chance. Yes costs 49¢: if you think the real chance is higher than 49%, Yes looks cheap; if lower, No does. $48k has traded on it, $3k in the last 24 hours.
How it resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. Full rules on Polymarket
On PredictRips you don't trade this order book. You rip a pack: the pack draws live markets like this one at their current price, tells you in plain words what you hold, and lets you cash out any card at the live price until 2 minutes before it closes.
More like this today: Election odds today.
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Packs draw 3 live politics markets like this one. You see the odds and the pack value before you pay, then hold to the result or cash out at the live price.
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FAQ
What are the odds for "Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?"?
The market prices "Yes" at 49¢, which means traders see about a 49% chance of it happening. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, so 49¢ could return about 2.1x. Prices as of 4 Nov 2026, 05:14 UTC.
How much does a correct Yes share pay?
$1 per share at resolution. At 49¢ that is about 2.1x your stake. No costs 52¢ and pays about 1.9x.
Can I get this market on PredictRips?
It is in the pack pool right now, so it can land in a PredictRips pack. Packs are random: you see the odds and pack value before paying, then hold to the result or cash out at the live price.
When does it resolve?
Trading closes around 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC. The venue's own rules decide the outcome; voided markets pay what the venue pays.