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Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Justin Gaethje

92%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$771k
  • 24h$1k
  • Liquidity$77k
  • Open interest$34k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Justin Gaethje
  • Arman Tsarukyan
  • Ilia Topuria
  • Charles Oliveira
Justin Gaethje chance over 30 days: from 88% to 92%.

In short

Justin Gaethje leads at 92%, ahead of Arman Tsarukyan (4%) and Ilia Topuria (0.2%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC. Justin Gaethje is up 4 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $771k has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Justin Gaethje, the favourite in "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026", trades at 92% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 4 pts.
  • Traded: $771k in total, $1k in 24 hours; open interest $34k; liquidity $77k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Justin Gaethje 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/who-will-be-ufc-lightweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Justin Gaethje92%up 11.09-1127
Arman Tsarukyan4%down 326+2497

10 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Arman Tsarukyan4%

    down 3 pts in 24h

  • Justin Gaethje92%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Justin Gaethje moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Justin Gaethje up 8 pts (86% to 95%)

What would move this market

  • Results, injuries, trades and transfers, and the schedule ahead.
  • Justin Gaethje leads Arman Tsarukyan by 88 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.ufc.com/athletes). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution source:
www.ufc.com/athletes
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 92% means about 92¢ a share and roughly 1.09x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC, Justin Gaethje at 92%, then Arman Tsarukyan at 4% and Ilia Topuria at 0.2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Justin Gaethje: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 4 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.ufc.com/athletes as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$771k in total and $1k in the last 24 hours, with about $34k in open positions (open interest) and $77k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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