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Tech

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

54%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$1.2M
  • 24h$3k
  • Liquidity$33k
  • Open interest$157k
  • Closesin 425d
  • December 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 59% to 54%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC: December 31, 2027 54%, December 31, 2026 14%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $1.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2028.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by", trades at 54% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 5 pts.
  • Traded: $1.2M in total, $3k in 24 hours; open interest $157k; liquidity $33k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202754%down 11.87-115
December 31, 202614%07.2+617

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 31, 202754%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • December 31, 202614%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 down 6 pts (63% to 56%)

  2. · December 31, 2027 up 6 pts (56% to 63%)

  3. · December 31, 2027 up 8 pts (48% to 56%)

  4. · December 31, 2027 down 9 pts (56% to 47%)

  5. · December 31, 2027 down 7 pts (60% to 53%)

  6. · December 31, 2027 up 8 pts (52% to 60%)

What would move this market

  • Launches, benchmark and leaderboard results, filings (an S-1 before an IPO), earnings and market caps, and regulators' decisions.
  • Thin book: about $33k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source:
www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
Closes:
1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 54% means about 54¢ a share and roughly 1.87x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 54%, then December 31, 2026 at 14%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 425 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.2M in total and $3k in the last 24 hours, with about $157k in open positions (open interest) and $33k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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