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Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

67%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$1.7M
  • 24h$7k
  • Liquidity$63k
  • Open interest$172k
  • Closesin 424d
  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • February 28, 2027
  • January 31, 2027
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 63% to 67%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC: December 31, 2027 67%, June 30, 2027 56%, February 28, 2027 36%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $1.7M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2028.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by", trades at 67% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 4 pts; 30 days: up 4 pts.
  • Traded: $1.7M in total, $7k in 24 hours; open interest $172k; liquidity $63k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202767%n/a1.50-199
June 30, 202756%n/a1.80-125
February 28, 202736%n/a2.8+182
January 31, 202721%down 54.8+376
December 31, 20269%down 711+1011

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 31, 20269%

    down 7 pts in 24h

  • January 31, 202721%

    down 5 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 up 6 pts (64% to 70%)

  2. · December 31, 2027 down 4 pts (65% to 61%)

  3. · December 31, 2027 up 6 pts (65% to 71%)

  4. · December 31, 2027 up 5 pts (63% to 68%)

  5. · December 31, 2027 up 6 pts (62% to 68%)

  6. · December 31, 2027 down 6 pts (63% to 56%)

What would move this market

  • Launches, benchmark and leaderboard results, filings (an S-1 before an IPO), earnings and market caps, and regulators' decisions.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 67% means about 67¢ a share and roughly 1.50x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 67%, then June 30, 2027 at 56% and February 28, 2027 at 36%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: unchanged in 24 hours, up 4 pts in 7 days and up 4 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 424 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.7M in total and $7k in the last 24 hours, with about $172k in open positions (open interest) and $63k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:11 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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