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Politics
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
51%chanceup 1 pt
- Vol$1.5M
- 24h$143
- Liquidity$2k
- Open interest$29k
- Closesin 67d
- 14–16
- 17–19
- 11–13
- 20+
In short
- 14–16, the favourite in "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026", trades at 51% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 14 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $1.5M in total, $143 in 24 hours; open interest $29k; liquidity $2k.
- Listed to close on 8 January 2027; bid-ask spread on 14–16 10¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–16 | 51% | up 1 | 1.96 | -104 | ||
| 17–19 | 34% | down 6 | 2.9 | +194 | ||
| 11–13 | 4% | n/a | 25 | +2369 | ||
| 20+ | 3% | down 3 | 40 | +3900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
17–1934%
20+3%
14–1651%
Timeline of big moves
· 14–16 down 11 pts (67% to 56%)
· 14–16 up 26 pts (42% to 67%)
· 14–16 down 30 pts (67% to 37%)
· 14–16 up 4 pts (64% to 68%)
· 14–16 up 15 pts (49% to 64%)
· 14–16 down 13 pts (60% to 46%)
What would move this market
- Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
- Thin book: about $2k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
- Resolution source:
- earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef
- Closes:
- 8 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 51% means about 51¢ a share and roughly 1.96x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC, 14–16 at 51%, then 17–19 at 34% and 11–13 at 4%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
14–16: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 14 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 8 January 2027 (8 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 67 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.5M in total and $143 in the last 24 hours, with about $29k in open positions (open interest) and $2k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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