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Politics
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
47%chancedown 2 pts
- Vol$1.2M
- 24h$0
- Liquidity$9k
- Open interest$23k
- Closesin 150d
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 3
In short
- 1, the favourite in "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026", trades at 47% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 3 pts; 30 days: up 7 pts.
- Traded: $1.2M in total, $0 in 24 hours; open interest $23k; liquidity $9k.
- Listed to close on 1 April 2027; bid-ask spread on 1 34¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | down 2 | 2.1 | +113 | ||
| 0 | 34% | up 2 | 2.9 | +194 | ||
| 2 | 23% | up 14 | 4.3 | +333 | ||
| 3 | 17% | down 7 | 5.9 | +488 | ||
| 5+ | 1% | n/a | 69 | +6797 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
223%
317%
147%
Timeline of big moves
· 1 down 5 pts (51% to 46%)
· 1 up 7 pts (44% to 50%)
· 1 down 6 pts (49% to 43%)
· 1 down 6 pts (52% to 46%)
· 1 up 5 pts (50% to 54%)
· 1 up 5 pts (46% to 51%)
What would move this market
- Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
- Thin book: about $9k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (volcano.si.edu/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
- Resolution source:
- volcano.si.edu/
- Closes:
- 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 47% means about 47¢ a share and roughly 2.1x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC, 1 at 47%, then 0 at 34% and 2 at 23%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
1: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 3 pts in 7 days and up 7 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 April 2027 (1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 150 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with volcano.si.edu/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.2M in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $23k in open positions (open interest) and $9k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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