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Politics

Kash Patel out by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

20%chanceup 3 pts24h

  • Vol$1.8M
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$13k
  • Open interest$90k
  • Closesin 60d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 18% to 20%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 20% chance (up 3 pts in 24 hours), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. Over 30 days it is up 2 pts. $1.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Kash Patel out by" trades at 20% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 3 pts; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: up 2 pts.
  • Traded: $1.8M in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $90k; liquidity $13k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 3¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/kash-patel-out-by”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes20%up 35.1+413
No81%down 21.24-413

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Yes moved 5 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Yes up 7 pts (20% to 27%)

  2. · Yes down 13 pts (33% to 20%)

  3. · Yes up 16 pts (18% to 33%)

  4. · Yes down 5 pts (21% to 15%)

  5. · Yes down 8 pts (24% to 16%)

  6. · Yes up 6 pts (22% to 28%)

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • Thin book: about $13k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 20% means about 20¢ a share and roughly 5.1x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Kash Patel out by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 20%, which is decimal odds of 5.1 or American +413. A Yes share costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: up 3 pts in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and up 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.8M in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $90k in open positions (open interest) and $13k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Kash Patel out by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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