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Politics

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: January 31, 2027

67%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$959k
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$87k
  • Open interest$102k
  • Closesin 60d
  • January 31, 2027
  • January 15, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
January 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 53% to 67%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC: January 31, 2027 67%, January 15, 2027 56%, December 31, 2026 18%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $959k has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • January 31, 2027, the favourite in "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by", trades at 67% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 9 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $959k in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $102k; liquidity $87k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on January 31, 2027 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
January 31, 202767%n/a1.49-203
January 15, 202756%down 41.80-125
December 31, 202618%down 25.7+471

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • January 15, 202756%

    down 4 pts in 24h

  • December 31, 202618%

    down 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when January 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · January 31, 2027 down 6 pts (74% to 68%)

    Spain train disaster clouds Sánchez chances of re-election · BBC World

  2. · January 31, 2027 up 12 pts (62% to 74%)

    Spain train disaster clouds Sánchez chances of re-election · BBC World

  3. · January 31, 2027 up 12 pts (51% to 62%)

  4. · January 31, 2027 down 16 pts (67% to 51%)

  5. · January 31, 2027 up 6 pts (61% to 66%)

  6. · January 31, 2027 up 7 pts (53% to 61%)

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 67% means about 67¢ a share and roughly 1.49x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC, January 31, 2027 at 67%, then January 15, 2027 at 56% and December 31, 2026 at 18%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

January 31, 2027: unchanged in 24 hours, up 9 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$959k in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $102k in open positions (open interest) and $87k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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