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Politics
Who will be arrested before 2027?
24%chancedown 4 pts
- Vol$641k
- 24h$4k
- Liquidity$433k
- Open interest$143k
- Closesin 60d
- John Brennan
- Mahmoud Khalil
- Lee Jun-seok
- James Clapper
In short
- John Brennan, the favourite in "Who will be arrested before 2027", trades at 24% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 5 pts; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: down 1 pt.
- Traded: $641k in total, $4k in 24 hours; open interest $143k; liquidity $433k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on John Brennan 3¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 24% | down 4 | 4.3 | +326 | ||
| Mahmoud Khalil | 23% | down 12 | 4.4 | +344 | ||
| Lee Jun-seok | 12% | 0 | 8.2 | +716 | ||
| James Clapper | 9% | 0 | 11 | +1011 | ||
| Tom Homan | 9% | up 2 | 12 | +1070 | ||
| James Comey | 9% | 0 | 12 | +1076 | ||
| Susan Rice | 7% | down 2 | 14 | +1329 | ||
| Candace Owens | 6% | 0 | 17 | +1581 | ||
| Anthony Fauci | 6% | 0 | 18 | +1702 | ||
| Lisa Cook | 5% | 0 | 20 | +1880 | ||
| Letitia James | 5% | 0 | 20 | +1920 | ||
| Pam Bondi | 5% | n/a | 22 | +2098 | ||
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4% | n/a | 24 | +2281 | ||
| Adam Schiff | 4% | n/a | 25 | +2369 | ||
| Brandon Johnson | 4% | 0 | 27 | +2640 | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 3% | 0 | 30 | +2930 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 3% | down 1 | 31 | +3025 | ||
| Kash Patel | 3% | 0 | 35 | +3409 | ||
| Loretta Lynch | 2% | 0 | 44 | +4344 | ||
| Bill Clinton | 2% | 0 | 56 | +5456 | ||
| Barack Obama | 2% | 0 | 56 | +5456 | ||
| John Kerry | 2% | n/a | 57 | +5614 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 2% | 0 | 61 | +5961 | ||
| Joe Biden | 1% | down 4 | 69 | +6797 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Mahmoud Khalil23%
John Brennan24%
Joe Biden1%
Timeline of big moves
· John Brennan down 8 pts (31% to 23%)
· John Brennan down 4 pts (34% to 30%)
· John Brennan up 13 pts (21% to 34%)
What would move this market
- Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
- A close race: John Brennan leads Mahmoud Khalil by 1 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 24% means about 24¢ a share and roughly 4.3x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Who will be arrested before 2027"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC, John Brennan at 24%, then Mahmoud Khalil at 23% and Lee Jun-seok at 12%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
John Brennan: down 5 pts in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$641k in total and $4k in the last 24 hours, with about $143k in open positions (open interest) and $433k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Who will be arrested before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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