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Politics

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Susie Wiles

38%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$1.5M
  • 24h$422
  • Liquidity$106k
  • Open interest$133k
  • Closesin 59d
  • Susie Wiles
  • Pete Hegseth
  • Markwayne Mullin
  • Dan Scavino
Susie Wiles chance over 30 days: from 17% to 38%.

In short

Susie Wiles leads at 38%, ahead of Pete Hegseth (37%) and Markwayne Mullin (31%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. Susie Wiles is up 21 pts over 30 days. 16 outcomes are priced and $1.5M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Susie Wiles, the favourite in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027", trades at 38% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 4 pts; 30 days: up 21 pts.
  • Traded: $1.5M in total, $422 in 24 hours; open interest $133k; liquidity $106k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Susie Wiles 4¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Susie Wiles38%up 12.6+163
Pete Hegseth37%up 72.7+170
Markwayne Mullin31%n/a3.2+223
Dan Scavino28%03.5+254
Russell Vought28%down 173.6+264
Kristi Noem27%n/a3.7+272
Tom Homan26%down 13.9+292
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.18%up 15.6+456
Kash Patel16%down 26.3+525
Lee Zeldin13%down 18.0+700
John Ratcliffe13%up 28.0+700
David Sacks12%08.5+751
Stephen Miller12%n/a8.7+770
Howard Lutnick11%09.1+809
Marco Rubio10%011+953
Scott Bessent9%up 111+1011

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Russell Vought28%

    down 17 pts in 24h

  • Pete Hegseth37%

    up 7 pts in 24h

  • Kash Patel16%

    down 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Susie Wiles moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Susie Wiles up 5 pts (34% to 39%)

    Judge orders Trump administration to stop threatening US election officials · BBC World

  2. · Susie Wiles up 4 pts (33% to 38%)

  3. · Susie Wiles down 5 pts (38% to 33%)

  4. · Susie Wiles up 5 pts (36% to 40%)

  5. · Susie Wiles up 5 pts (31% to 37%)

  6. · Susie Wiles down 7 pts (38% to 31%)

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
  • A close race: Susie Wiles leads Pete Hegseth by 1 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 38% means about 38¢ a share and roughly 2.6x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC, Susie Wiles at 38%, then Pete Hegseth at 37% and Markwayne Mullin at 31%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Susie Wiles: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 4 pts in 7 days and up 21 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.5M in total and $422 in the last 24 hours, with about $133k in open positions (open interest) and $106k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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