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World
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
9%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$1.8M
- 24h$3k
- Liquidity$65k
- Open interest$112k
- Closesin 61d
In short
- Yes on "Cuban regime falls in 2026" trades at 9% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 4 pts; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $1.8M in total, $3k in 24 hours; open interest $112k; liquidity $65k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | down 1 | 12 | +1076 | ||
| No | 92% | up 1 | 1.09 | -1076 |
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- At 9% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 9% means about 9¢ a share and roughly 12x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Cuban regime falls in 2026?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 9%, which is decimal odds of 12 or American +1076. A Yes share costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 4 pts in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.8M in total and $3k in the last 24 hours, with about $112k in open positions (open interest) and $65k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Cuban regime falls in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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