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World

Erdoğan out by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

32%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$653k
  • 24h$1k
  • Liquidity$64k
  • Open interest$234k
  • Closesin 426d
  • December 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 50% to 32%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC: December 31, 2027 32%, December 31, 2026 4%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $653k has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 31 December 2027.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Erdoğan out by", trades at 32% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 12 pts; 30 days: down 18 pts.
  • Traded: $653k in total, $1k in 24 hours; open interest $234k; liquidity $64k.
  • Listed to close on 31 December 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 30¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/erdoan-out-before-2027”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202732%up 13.1+212
December 31, 20264%down 126+2497

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 31, 20264%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • December 31, 202732%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 up 10 pts (21% to 31%)

  2. · December 31, 2027 down 10 pts (31% to 21%)

  3. · December 31, 2027 up 10 pts (20% to 30%)

  4. · December 31, 2027 down 6 pts (26% to 20%)

  5. · December 31, 2027 down 4 pts (31% to 26%)

  6. · December 31, 2027 up 14 pts (16% to 31%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
31 Dec 2027, 23:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 32% means about 32¢ a share and roughly 3.1x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Erdoğan out by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 32%, then December 31, 2026 at 4%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 12 pts in 7 days and down 18 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 31 December 2027 (31 Dec 2027, 23:59 UTC, in about 426 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$653k in total and $1k in the last 24 hours, with about $234k in open positions (open interest) and $64k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 05:22 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Erdoğan out by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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