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World

Houthis enter Aden by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31

17%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$742k
  • 24h$4k
  • Liquidity$115k
  • Open interest$95k
  • Closesin 61d
  • December 31
  • November 30
  • October 31
December 31 chance over 30 days: from 28% to 17%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC: December 31 17%, November 30 8%, October 31 0.4%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $742k has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • December 31, the favourite in "Houthis enter Aden by", trades at 17% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 6 pts; 30 days: down 11 pts.
  • Traded: $742k in total, $4k in 24 hours; open interest $95k; liquidity $115k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 3117%n/a6.1+506
November 308%013+1150

1 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • October 310.4%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • November 308%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31 down 5 pts (31% to 26%)

  2. · December 31 up 5 pts (26% to 31%)

  3. · December 31 down 6 pts (33% to 26%)

  4. · December 31 up 10 pts (23% to 33%)

  5. · December 31 down 4 pts (28% to 24%)

  6. · December 31 up 7 pts (22% to 28%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 17% means about 17¢ a share and roughly 6.1x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Houthis enter Aden by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC, December 31 at 17%, then November 30 at 8% and October 31 at 0.4%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31: unchanged in 24 hours, down 6 pts in 7 days and down 11 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$742k in total and $4k in the last 24 hours, with about $95k in open positions (open interest) and $115k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 07:57 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Houthis enter Aden by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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