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World
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
71%chancedown 5 pts
- Vol$1.7M
- 24h$332
- Liquidity$140k
- Open interest$16k
- Closesin 60d
- 8
- 9
- 11
- 10
In short
- 8, the favourite in "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026", trades at 71% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 5 pts; 7 days: up 11 pts; 30 days: up 7 pts.
- Traded: $1.7M in total, $332 in 24 hours; open interest $16k; liquidity $140k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on 8 28¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 71% | down 5 | 1.40 | -249 | ||
| 9 | 12% | down 1 | 8.6 | +762 | ||
| 11 | 3% | up 1 | 36 | +3536 | ||
| 10 | 3% | 0 | 37 | +3604 | ||
| 12 | 0.9% | 0 | 105 | +10426 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
871%
113%
912%
Timeline of big moves
· 8 down 5 pts (76% to 71%)
· 8 up 15 pts (60% to 75%)
· 8 down 5 pts (66% to 60%)
· 8 up 5 pts (58% to 63%)
· 8 up 5 pts (53% to 58%)
· 8 down 8 pts (62% to 53%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
In the news
- How does the UK state pension compare with other countries? · BBC Politics, 24 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 71% means about 71¢ a share and roughly 1.40x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC, 8 at 71%, then 9 at 12% and 11 at 3%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
8: down 5 pts in 24 hours, up 11 pts in 7 days and up 7 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.7M in total and $332 in the last 24 hours, with about $16k in open positions (open interest) and $140k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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