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World
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
4%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$609k
- 24h$2k
- Liquidity$62k
- Open interest$264k
- Closesin 60d
In short
- Yes on "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027" trades at 4% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 1 pt.
- Traded: $609k in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $264k; liquidity $62k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | down 1 | 28 | +2717 | ||
| No | 96% | up 1 | 1.04 | -2717 |
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 4% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 4% means about 4¢ a share and roughly 28x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 4%, which is decimal odds of 28 or American +2717. A Yes share costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$609k in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $264k in open positions (open interest) and $62k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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