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Maduro Prison Time?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: 60+

39%chanceup 4 pts24h

  • Vol$1.1M
  • 24h$37k
  • Liquidity$147k
  • Open interest$71k
  • Closesin 424d
  • 60+
  • No prison time
  • <20
  • 20–40
60+ chance over 30 days: from 22% to 39%.

In short

60+ leads at 39%, ahead of No prison time (37%) and <20 (10%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. 60+ is up 17 pts over 30 days. 5 outcomes are priced and $1.1M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2028.
Key numbers
  • 60+, the favourite in "Maduro Prison Time", trades at 39% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 4 pts; 7 days: up 18 pts; 30 days: up 17 pts.
  • Traded: $1.1M in total, $37k in 24 hours; open interest $71k; liquidity $147k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on 60+ 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/maduro-prison-time-527”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
60+39%up 42.6+160
No prison time37%down 82.7+170
<2010%up 19.8+880
20–407%up 114+1339
40–605%019+1842

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • No prison time37%

    down 8 pts in 24h

  • 60+39%

    up 4 pts in 24h

  • <2010%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when 60+ moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · 60+ up 8 pts (32% to 40%)

  2. · 60+ up 16 pts (21% to 37%)

  3. · 60+ down 4 pts (26% to 22%)

  4. · 60+ up 10 pts (12% to 22%)

  5. · 60+ down 12 pts (27% to 15%)

  6. · 60+ down 11 pts (33% to 22%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • A close race: 60+ leads No prison time by 2 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 39% means about 39¢ a share and roughly 2.6x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Maduro Prison Time"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC, 60+ at 39%, then No prison time at 37% and <20 at 10%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

60+: up 4 pts in 24 hours, up 18 pts in 7 days and up 17 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 424 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.1M in total and $37k in the last 24 hours, with about $71k in open positions (open interest) and $147k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Maduro Prison Time?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

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Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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