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World

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

82%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$883k
  • 24h$341
  • Liquidity$30k
  • Open interest$139k
  • Closesin 60d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 85% to 82%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 82% chance (up 1 pt in 24 hours), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC. Over 30 days it is down 3 pts. $883k has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 31 December 2026.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" trades at 82% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 3 pts; 30 days: down 3 pts.
  • Traded: $883k in total, $341 in 24 hours; open interest $139k; liquidity $30k.
  • Listed to close on 31 December 2026; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/nothing-ever-happens-2026”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes82%up 11.23-441
No19%down 15.4+441

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Yes moved 5 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Yes down 6 pts (82% to 76%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Thin book: about $30k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Closes:
31 Dec 2026, 16:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 82% means about 82¢ a share and roughly 1.23x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 82%, which is decimal odds of 1.23 or American -441. A Yes share costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 3 pts in 7 days and down 3 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 31 December 2026 (31 Dec 2026, 16:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$883k in total and $341 in the last 24 hours, with about $139k in open positions (open interest) and $30k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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