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World
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
13%chancen/a
- Vol$634k
- 24h$522
- Liquidity$53k
- Open interest$70k
- Closesin 61d
- December 31
- November 30
- October 31
In short
- December 31, the favourite in "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by", trades at 13% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 03:07 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 8 pts; 30 days: up 2 pts.
- Traded: $634k in total, $522 in 24 hours; open interest $70k; liquidity $53k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 13% | n/a | 8.0 | +700 | ||
| November 30 | 11% | up 2 | 9.5 | +852 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
November 3011%
October 310.3%
Timeline of big moves
· December 31 down 5 pts (18% to 13%)
· December 31 down 7 pts (28% to 21%)
· December 31 up 5 pts (28% to 33%)
· December 31 down 5 pts (34% to 28%)
· December 31 down 13 pts (48% to 34%)
· December 31 down 23 pts (81% to 59%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 13% means about 13¢ a share and roughly 8.0x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 03:07 UTC, December 31 at 13%, then November 30 at 11% and October 31 at 0.3%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
December 31: unchanged in 24 hours, down 8 pts in 7 days and up 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 03:07 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$634k in total and $522 in the last 24 hours, with about $70k in open positions (open interest) and $53k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 03:07 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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