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World

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

3%chance024h

  • Vol$674k
  • 24h$3k
  • Liquidity$35k
  • Open interest$129k
  • Closesin 60d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 4% to 3%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 3% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC. Over 30 days it is down 1 pt. $674k has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026" trades at 3% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 1 pt.
  • Traded: $674k in total, $3k in 24 hours; open interest $129k; liquidity $35k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes3%031+3025
No97%01.03-3025

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • At 3% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
  • Thin book: about $35k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 3% means about 3¢ a share and roughly 31x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 3%, which is decimal odds of 31 or American +3025. A Yes share costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$674k in total and $3k in the last 24 hours, with about $129k in open positions (open interest) and $35k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:56 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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