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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Dilution of Iran's Uranium

16%chanceup 2 pts24h

  • Vol$1.4M
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$250k
  • Open interest$130k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Dilution of Iran's Uranium
  • 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
  • ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
  • Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
Dilution of Iran's Uranium chance over 30 days: from 14% to 16%.

In short

Dilution of Iran's Uranium leads at 16%, ahead of 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium (15%) and ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) (14%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC. Dilution of Iran's Uranium is up 1 pt over 30 days. 6 outcomes are priced and $1.4M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Dilution of Iran's Uranium, the favourite in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026", trades at 16% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: up 3 pts; 30 days: up 1 pt.
  • Traded: $1.4M in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $130k; liquidity $250k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Dilution of Iran's Uranium 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Dilution of Iran's Uranium16%up 26.5+545
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium15%n/a6.9+590
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%n/a7.4+641
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)13%n/a7.7+669
Enriched Uranium Surrender11%n/a9.5+852
Iran Reconstruction Funding7%n/a15+1438

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Dilution of Iran's Uranium16%

    up 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Dilution of Iran's Uranium moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Dilution of Iran's Uranium down 4 pts (16% to 12%)

  2. · Dilution of Iran's Uranium up 4 pts (14% to 19%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • A close race: Dilution of Iran's Uranium leads 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium by 1 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

Rules
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 16% means about 16¢ a share and roughly 6.5x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC, Dilution of Iran's Uranium at 16%, then 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium at 15% and ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) at 14%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Dilution of Iran's Uranium: up 2 pts in 24 hours, up 3 pts in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.4M in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $130k in open positions (open interest) and $250k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:41 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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