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Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Druzkhivka

24%chancedown 6 pts24h

  • Vol$1.8M
  • 24h$3k
  • Liquidity$56k
  • Open interest$198k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Druzkhivka
  • Sloviansk
  • Kramatorsk
  • Kherson
Druzkhivka chance over 30 days: from 31% to 24%.

In short

Druzkhivka leads at 24%, ahead of Sloviansk (7%) and Kramatorsk (7%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC. Druzkhivka is down 8 pts over 30 days. 7 outcomes are priced and $1.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Druzkhivka, the favourite in "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31", trades at 24% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 6 pts; 7 days: down 5 pts; 30 days: down 8 pts.
  • Traded: $1.8M in total, $3k in 24 hours; open interest $198k; liquidity $56k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Druzkhivka 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Druzkhivka24%down 64.3+326
Sloviansk7%n/a15+1438
Kramatorsk7%up 115+1438
Kherson4%024+2253
Sumy3%032+3126
Zaporizhia3%039+3822
Kharkiv2%n/a61+5961

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Druzkhivka24%

    down 6 pts in 24h

  • Kramatorsk7%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Druzkhivka moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Druzkhivka down 9 pts (32% to 23%)

  2. · Druzkhivka up 8 pts (25% to 32%)

  3. · Druzkhivka down 6 pts (30% to 24%)

  4. · Druzkhivka up 4 pts (27% to 31%)

  5. · Druzkhivka down 4 pts (32% to 28%)

  6. · Druzkhivka up 4 pts (28% to 32%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Druzkhivka leads Sloviansk by 17 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolution source:
maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 24% means about 24¢ a share and roughly 4.3x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC, Druzkhivka at 24%, then Sloviansk at 7% and Kramatorsk at 7%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Druzkhivka: down 6 pts in 24 hours, down 5 pts in 7 days and down 8 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9 as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.8M in total and $3k in the last 24 hours, with about $198k in open positions (open interest) and $56k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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