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World

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Somaliland

15%chance024h

  • Vol$1.8M
  • 24h$577
  • Liquidity$177k
  • Open interest$131k
  • Closesin 59d
  • Somaliland
  • Jordan
  • Qatar
  • Lebanon
Somaliland chance over 30 days: from 8% to 15%.

In short

Somaliland leads at 15%, ahead of Jordan (8%) and Qatar (6%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC. Somaliland is up 8 pts over 30 days. 12 outcomes are priced and $1.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Somaliland, the favourite in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027", trades at 15% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 5 pts; 30 days: up 8 pts.
  • Traded: $1.8M in total, $577 in 24 hours; open interest $131k; liquidity $177k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Somaliland 10¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Somaliland15%06.7+567
Jordan8%n/a13+1150
Qatar6%016+1513
Lebanon5%n/a20+1900
Pakistan5%021+1962
Syria5%022+2074
Oman5%022+2122
Kuwait5%n/a22+2122
Saudi Arabia4%022+2147
Azerbaijan4%022+2147
Egypt4%n/a23+2199
Turkey4%028+2717

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Somaliland15%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Somaliland moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Somaliland up 6 pts (11% to 17%)

  2. · Somaliland down 7 pts (18% to 11%)

  3. · Somaliland up 5 pts (12% to 17%)

  4. · Somaliland down 6 pts (17% to 11%)

  5. · Somaliland up 5 pts (12% to 16%)

  6. · Somaliland down 5 pts (17% to 12%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • A close race: Somaliland leads Jordan by 7 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 15% means about 15¢ a share and roughly 6.7x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC, Somaliland at 15%, then Jordan at 8% and Qatar at 6%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Somaliland: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 5 pts in 7 days and up 8 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.8M in total and $577 in the last 24 hours, with about $131k in open positions (open interest) and $177k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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