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Will any country leave NATO by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

26%chancedown 5 pts24h

  • Vol$1.4M
  • 24h$20
  • Liquidity$18k
  • Open interest$36k
  • Closesin 425d
  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 49% to 26%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC: December 31, 2027 26%, June 30, 2027 9%, December 31, 2026 3%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $1.4M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2028.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Will any country leave NATO by", trades at 26% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 5 pts; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $1.4M in total, $20 in 24 hours; open interest $36k; liquidity $18k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 40¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202726%down 53.8+285
June 30, 20279%up 111+1011
December 31, 20263%030+2930

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 31, 202726%

    down 5 pts in 24h

  • June 30, 20279%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 down 5 pts (31% to 26%)

  2. · December 31, 2027 up 4 pts (28% to 32%)

  3. · December 31, 2027 down 21 pts (49% to 28%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Thin book: about $18k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 26% means about 26¢ a share and roughly 3.8x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will any country leave NATO by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 26%, then June 30, 2027 at 9% and December 31, 2026 at 3%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: down 5 pts in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 425 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.4M in total and $20 in the last 24 hours, with about $36k in open positions (open interest) and $18k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will any country leave NATO by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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