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World
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
8%chance0
- Vol$665k
- 24h$68
- Liquidity$24k
- Open interest$82k
- Closesin 59d
In short
- Yes on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027" trades at 8% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 4 pts; 30 days: down 3 pts.
- Traded: $665k in total, $68 in 24 hours; open interest $82k; liquidity $24k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 0 | 12 | +1098 | ||
| No | 92% | 0 | 1.09 | -1098 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes up 7 pts (7% to 14%)
· Yes down 6 pts (12% to 6%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 8% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
- Thin book: about $24k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 8% means about 8¢ a share and roughly 12x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 8%, which is decimal odds of 12 or American +1098. A Yes share costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 4 pts in 7 days and down 3 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$665k in total and $68 in the last 24 hours, with about $82k in open positions (open interest) and $24k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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