PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works
Politics
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%chance0
- Vol$834k
- 24h$452
- Liquidity$25k
- Open interest$98k
- Closesin 91d
In short
- Yes on "10.0 or above earthquake before 2027" trades at 1% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $834k in total, $452 in 24 hours; open interest $98k; liquidity $25k.
- Listed to close on 1 February 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0 | 77 | +7592 | ||
| No | 99% | 0 | 1.01 | -7592 |
What would move this market
- Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
- Time. It closes on 1 February 2027 (about 91 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 1% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
- Thin book: about $25k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
- Resolution source:
- earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef
- Closes:
- 1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 1% means about 1¢ a share and roughly 77x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
Your first pack is free
Rip a pack of live politics markets
Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.
FAQ
What are the odds on "10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 1%, which is decimal odds of 77 or American +7592. A Yes share costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 February 2027 (1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 91 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$834k in total and $452 in the last 24 hours, with about $98k in open positions (open interest) and $25k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
Related markets
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · March 31 64%
- Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No 98%
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Gavin Newsom 16%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 18%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 38%
- Next French Presidential Election · Marine Le Pen 40%
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 71%
- California Governor Election Winner · Steve Hilton 1%
- All politics odds
- All big questions