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Next James Bond actor?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Jack Lowden

42%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$1.9M
  • 24h$63k
  • Liquidity$326k
  • Open interest$314k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Jack Lowden
  • Callum Turner
  • No Bond chosen
  • Josh O'Connor
Jack Lowden chance over 30 days: from 37% to 42%.

In short

Jack Lowden leads at 42%, ahead of Callum Turner (28%) and No Bond chosen (15%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC. Jack Lowden is up 5 pts over 30 days. 8 outcomes are priced and $1.9M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Jack Lowden, the favourite in "Next James Bond actor", trades at 42% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 6 pts; 30 days: up 5 pts.
  • Traded: $1.9M in total, $63k in 24 hours; open interest $314k; liquidity $326k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Jack Lowden under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/next-james-bond-actor-398”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Jack Lowden42%up 12.4+140
Callum Turner28%up 33.6+255
No Bond chosen15%down 26.6+560
Josh O'Connor11%up 28.9+793
Joe Alwyn2%up 248+4662
Jack Barton2%up 148+4662
Tom Francis1%074+7307
James Norton0.5%n/a182+18082

17 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Callum Turner28%

    up 3 pts in 24h

  • Joe Alwyn2%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • No Bond chosen15%

    down 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Jack Lowden moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Jack Lowden up 13 pts (35% to 49%)

  2. · Jack Lowden up 7 pts (30% to 37%)

  3. · Jack Lowden down 8 pts (38% to 30%)

  4. · Jack Lowden up 6 pts (36% to 42%)

  5. · Jack Lowden down 8 pts (49% to 40%)

  6. · Jack Lowden up 18 pts (31% to 49%)

What would move this market

  • Nominations, release dates, chart and box-office numbers, and announcements by the people involved.
  • Jack Lowden leads Callum Turner by 14 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 42% means about 42¢ a share and roughly 2.4x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Next James Bond actor"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC, Jack Lowden at 42%, then Callum Turner at 28% and No Bond chosen at 15%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Jack Lowden: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 6 pts in 7 days and up 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.9M in total and $63k in the last 24 hours, with about $314k in open positions (open interest) and $326k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Next James Bond actor?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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