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World
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
8%chancedown 6 pts
- Vol$975k
- 24h$9k
- Liquidity$462k
- Open interest$124k
- Closesin 60d
- Venezuela
- Lebanon
- Tunisia
- Pakistan
In short
- Venezuela, the favourite in "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31", trades at 8% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 7 pts; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 6 pts.
- Traded: $975k in total, $9k in 24 hours; open interest $124k; liquidity $462k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Venezuela 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 8% | down 6 | 13 | +1233 | ||
| Lebanon | 7% | 0 | 15 | +1438 | ||
| Tunisia | 5% | down 1 | 21 | +1962 | ||
| Pakistan | 5% | 0 | 21 | +2028 | ||
| Indonesia | 5% | 0 | 22 | +2051 | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 4% | 0 | 26 | +2464 | ||
| Iraq | 4% | down 1 | 26 | +2532 | ||
| Syria | 3% | down 1 | 32 | +3126 | ||
| Kuwait | 3% | 0 | 33 | +3179 | ||
| Cuba | 3% | 0 | 35 | +3409 | ||
| North Korea | 3% | down 1 | 36 | +3536 | ||
| Qatar | 3% | n/a | 38 | +3674 | ||
| Iran | 3% | 0 | 38 | +3674 | ||
| Malaysia | 3% | n/a | 39 | +3822 | ||
| Afghanistan | 2% | 0 | 43 | +4248 | ||
| Bangladesh | 0.9% | 0 | 105 | +10426 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Venezuela8%
Iraq4%
Tunisia5%
Timeline of big moves
· Venezuela down 7 pts (14% to 8%)
· Venezuela up 5 pts (10% to 14%)
· Venezuela down 7 pts (18% to 11%)
· Venezuela up 4 pts (14% to 18%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- A close race: Venezuela leads Lebanon by 1 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 8% means about 8¢ a share and roughly 13x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC, Venezuela at 8%, then Lebanon at 7% and Tunisia at 5%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Venezuela: down 7 pts in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 6 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$975k in total and $9k in the last 24 hours, with about $124k in open positions (open interest) and $462k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 02:53 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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