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Tech
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
43%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$1.2M
- 24h$26k
- Liquidity$50k
- Open interest$105k
- Closesin 425d
- December 31, 2027
- June 30, 2027
- December 31, 2026
In short
- December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by", trades at 43% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: up 12 pts; 30 days: down 27 pts.
- Traded: $1.2M in total, $26k in 24 hours; open interest $105k; liquidity $50k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 67¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 43% | down 1 | 2.4 | +135 | ||
| June 30, 2027 | 17% | down 1 | 6.1 | +506 | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | 0 | 13 | +1216 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
December 31, 202743%
June 30, 202717%
Timeline of big moves
· December 31, 2027 up 14 pts (31% to 45%)
· December 31, 2027 down 7 pts (38% to 31%)
· December 31, 2027 down 19 pts (54% to 35%)
· December 31, 2027 up 11 pts (45% to 55%)
· December 31, 2027 down 20 pts (66% to 45%)
What would move this market
- Launches, benchmark and leaderboard results, filings (an S-1 before an IPO), earnings and market caps, and regulators' decisions.
- Thin book: about $50k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
- Resolution source:
- www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 43% means about 43¢ a share and roughly 2.4x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 43%, then June 30, 2027 at 17% and December 31, 2026 at 8%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
December 31, 2027: down 2 pts in 24 hours, up 12 pts in 7 days and down 27 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 425 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.2M in total and $26k in the last 24 hours, with about $105k in open positions (open interest) and $50k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:05 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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