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Economy
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
72%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$1.3M
- 24h$28k
- Liquidity$104k
- Open interest$505k
- Closesin 38d
In short
- Yes on "Another Fed rate hike in 2026" trades at 72% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 16:44 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: down 5 pts; 30 days: down 1 pt.
- Traded: $1.3M in total, $28k in 24 hours; open interest $505k; liquidity $104k.
- Listed to close on 10 December 2026; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72% | up 2 | 1.39 | -257 | ||
| No | 28% | down 1 | 3.6 | +257 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes down 6 pts (77% to 71%)
· Yes down 6 pts (81% to 75%)
· Yes down 8 pts (87% to 79%)
· Yes up 6 pts (80% to 87%)
· Yes up 5 pts (73% to 78%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
In the news
- ‘Sharper, longer slowdown’ predicted for Australian economy as fifth interest rate hike looms · The Guardian, 2 Nov 2026, 06:57 UTC
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution source:
- www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Closes:
- 10 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 72% means about 72¢ a share and roughly 1.39x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
The event, explained (dates, what is decided and every market on it): the next Fed meeting.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 16:44 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 72%, which is decimal odds of 1.39 or American -257. A Yes share costs 72¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: up 2 pts in 24 hours, down 5 pts in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 16:44 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 10 December 2026 (10 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 38 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.3M in total and $28k in the last 24 hours, with about $505k in open positions (open interest) and $104k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 16:44 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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