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Economy
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
96%chancen/a
- Vol$945k
- 24h$35
- Liquidity$103k
- Open interest$95k
- Closesin 90d
- 4.0–5.0%
- 5.0–6.0%
- 3.0–4.0%
- 1.0–2.0%
In short
- 4.0–5.0%, the favourite in "China Annual GDP Growth 2026", trades at 96% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 22:54 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: up 4 pts.
- Traded: $945k in total, $35 in 24 hours; open interest $95k; liquidity $103k.
- Listed to close on 1 February 2027; bid-ask spread on 4.0–5.0% 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–5.0% | 96% | n/a | 1.04 | -2464 | ||
| 5.0–6.0% | 2% | 0 | 44 | +4344 | ||
| 3.0–4.0% | 0.9% | n/a | 111 | +11011 |
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- 4.0–5.0% leads 5.0–6.0% by 94 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
- Resolution source:
- www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- Closes:
- 1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 96% means about 96¢ a share and roughly 1.04x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "China Annual GDP Growth 2026"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 22:54 UTC, 4.0–5.0% at 96%, then 5.0–6.0% at 2% and 3.0–4.0% at 0.9%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
4.0–5.0%: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and up 4 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:54 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 February 2027 (1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 90 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$945k in total and $35 in the last 24 hours, with about $95k in open positions (open interest) and $103k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:54 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "China Annual GDP Growth 2026". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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