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Economy

Fed Decision in January?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: No change

70%chancedown 2 pts24h

  • Vol$1.1M
  • 24h$24k
  • Liquidity$615k
  • Open interest$137k
  • Closesin 87d
  • No change
  • 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps decrease
  • 50+ bps increase
No change chance over 30 days: from 65% to 70%.

In short

No change leads at 70%, ahead of 25 bps increase (26%) and 25 bps decrease (2%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC. No change is up 5 pts over 30 days. 5 outcomes are priced and $1.1M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 28 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • No change, the favourite in "Fed Decision in January", trades at 70% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 3 pts; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 5 pts.
  • Traded: $1.1M in total, $24k in 24 hours; open interest $137k; liquidity $615k.
  • Listed to close on 28 January 2027; bid-ask spread on No change 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/fed-decision-in-january”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
No change70%down 21.44-228
25 bps increase26%up 13.9+292
25 bps decrease2%061+5961
50+ bps increase0.8%0133+13233
50+ bps decrease0.5%n/a182+18082

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • No change70%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • 25 bps increase26%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when No change moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · No change up 6 pts (64% to 70%)

  2. · No change down 4 pts (69% to 65%)

  3. · No change up 12 pts (56% to 68%)

  4. · No change down 7 pts (65% to 57%)

  5. · No change up 9 pts (57% to 66%)

  6. · No change down 12 pts (67% to 55%)

What would move this market

  • Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
  • No change leads 25 bps increase by 44 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution source:
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Closes:
28 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 70% means about 70¢ a share and roughly 1.44x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Fed Decision in January"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC, No change at 70%, then 25 bps increase at 26% and 25 bps decrease at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

No change: down 3 pts in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 28 January 2027 (28 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 87 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.1M in total and $24k in the last 24 hours, with about $137k in open positions (open interest) and $615k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:13 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Fed Decision in January?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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