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Economy

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Hike–Pause–Hike

72%chance024h

  • Vol$571k
  • 24h$14k
  • Liquidity$126k
  • Open interest$76k
  • Closesin 37d
  • Hike–Pause–Hike
  • Hike–Pause–Pause
  • Other
Hike–Pause–Hike chance over 30 days: from 59% to 72%.

In short

Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 72%, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause (25%) and Other (0.9%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC. Hike–Pause–Hike is up 13 pts over 30 days. 3 outcomes are priced and $571k has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 9 December 2026.
Key numbers
  • Hike–Pause–Hike, the favourite in "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)", trades at 72% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: up 13 pts.
  • Traded: $571k in total, $14k in 24 hours; open interest $76k; liquidity $126k.
  • Listed to close on 9 December 2026; bid-ask spread on Hike–Pause–Hike 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/fed-decisions-sepdec”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Hike–Pause–Hike72%01.40-251
Hike–Pause–Pause25%down 24.0+300
Other0.9%down 1105+10426

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Hike–Pause–Pause25%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • Other0.9%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • Hike–Pause–Hike72%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Hike–Pause–Hike moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Hike–Pause–Hike down 8 pts (79% to 71%)

  2. · Hike–Pause–Hike up 6 pts (75% to 80%)

  3. · Hike–Pause–Hike up 9 pts (61% to 70%)

  4. · Hike–Pause–Hike down 5 pts (62% to 56%)

  5. · Hike–Pause–Hike down 5 pts (67% to 62%)

  6. · Hike–Pause–Hike up 7 pts (60% to 67%)

What would move this market

  • Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
  • Hike–Pause–Hike leads Hike–Pause–Pause by 47 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolution source:
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Closes:
9 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 72% means about 72¢ a share and roughly 1.40x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC, Hike–Pause–Hike at 72%, then Hike–Pause–Pause at 25% and Other at 0.9%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Hike–Pause–Hike: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and up 13 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 9 December 2026 (9 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC, in about 37 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$571k in total and $14k in the last 24 hours, with about $76k in open positions (open interest) and $126k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:01 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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