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Economy
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
30%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$1.1M
- 24h$62
- Liquidity$50k
- Open interest$128k
- Closesin 60d
- 5.3%
- 5.4%
- 5.5%
- 5.7%
In short
- 5.3%, the favourite in "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027", trades at 30% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 26 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $1.1M in total, $62 in 24 hours; open interest $128k; liquidity $50k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on 5.3% 9¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | 30% | down 1 | 3.4 | +239 | ||
| 5.4% | 22% | 0 | 4.7 | +365 | ||
| 5.5% | 10% | 0 | 10 | +947 | ||
| 5.7% | 5% | down 1 | 20 | +1920 | ||
| 6.0% | 3% | 0 | 33 | +3179 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
5.3%30%
5.7%5%
5.4%22%
Timeline of big moves
· 5.3% up 7 pts (24% to 31%)
· 5.3% down 13 pts (38% to 24%)
· 5.3% down 8 pts (49% to 41%)
· 5.3% up 5 pts (43% to 49%)
· 5.3% down 14 pts (56% to 42%)
· 5.3% up 17 pts (39% to 56%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- Thin book: about $50k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
- Resolution source:
- home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 30% means about 30¢ a share and roughly 3.4x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC, 5.3% at 30%, then 5.4% at 22% and 5.5% at 10%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
5.3%: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 26 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.1M in total and $62 in the last 24 hours, with about $128k in open positions (open interest) and $50k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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