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Economy
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
3%chance0
- Vol$594k
- 24h$7
- Liquidity$33k
- Open interest$94k
- Closesin 150d
- 5.0%
- 10.0%
- 7.0%
- 5.5%
In short
- 5.0%, the favourite in "How high will US unemployment go in 2026", trades at 3% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 07:18 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 4 pts; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $594k in total, $7 in 24 hours; open interest $94k; liquidity $33k.
- Listed to close on 1 April 2027; bid-ask spread on 5.0% under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 3% | 0 | 32 | +3075 | ||
| 10.0% | 2% | 0 | 48 | +4662 | ||
| 7.0% | 2% | 0 | 51 | +5028 | ||
| 5.5% | 2% | n/a | 61 | +5961 | ||
| 6.0% | 0.8% | n/a | 125 | +12400 |
Timeline of big moves
· 5.0% down 5 pts (13% to 8%)
· 5.0% up 8 pts (5% to 13%)
· 5.0% down 6 pts (11% to 5%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- Thin book: about $33k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
- Resolution source:
- www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm
- Closes:
- 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 3% means about 3¢ a share and roughly 32x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 07:18 UTC, 5.0% at 3%, then 10.0% at 2% and 7.0% at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
5.0%: unchanged in 24 hours, down 4 pts in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 07:18 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 April 2027 (1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 150 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$594k in total and $7 in the last 24 hours, with about $94k in open positions (open interest) and $33k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 07:18 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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