PredictRips

PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works

Economy

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Below 4.9%

88%chanceup 5 pts24h

  • Vol$516k
  • 24h$2k
  • Liquidity$27k
  • Open interest$54k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Below 4.9%
  • Below 4.8%
  • Below 4.7%
  • Below 4.6%
Below 4.9% chance over 30 days: from 81% to 87%.

In short

Below 4.9% leads at 88%, ahead of Below 4.8% (62%) and Below 4.7% (44%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC. 17 outcomes are priced and $516k has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Below 4.9%, the favourite in "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027", trades at 88% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 5 pts; 7 days: up 8 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $516k in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $54k; liquidity $27k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Below 4.9% 5¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Below 4.9%88%up 51.14-700
Below 4.8%62%down 31.63-160
Below 4.7%44%up 102.3+130
Below 4.6%22%up 24.7+365
Below 4.3%11%up 29.5+848
Below 4.5%10%down 19.9+890
Below 4.4%10%up 110.0+900
Below 4.2%5%019+1823
Below 3.9%5%down 121+2028
Below 4.1%5%021+2028
Below 3.8%3%down 130+2930
Below 1.0%3%040+3900
Below 3.6%3%040+3900
Below 3.7%2%050+4900
Below 2.0%2%056+5456
Below 3.5%1%n/a69+6797
Below 3.0%1%n/a74+7307

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Below 4.7%44%

    up 10 pts in 24h

  • Below 4.9%88%

    up 5 pts in 24h

  • Below 4.8%62%

    down 3 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Below 4.9% moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Below 4.9% up 5 pts (83% to 87%)

  2. · Below 4.9% down 10 pts (93% to 83%)

  3. · Below 4.9% up 13 pts (73% to 86%)

  4. · Below 4.9% down 6 pts (79% to 74%)

  5. · Below 4.9% up 9 pts (71% to 79%)

  6. · Below 4.9% down 10 pts (81% to 71%)

What would move this market

  • Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
  • Below 4.9% leads Below 4.8% by 26 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • Thin book: about $27k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution source:
home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 88% means about 88¢ a share and roughly 1.14x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

Your first pack is free

Rip a pack of live economy markets

Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.

Rip your free pack

18+. Packs are random and carry a house edge: pack value at open is about 90% of the price.

FAQ

Who is favoured in "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC, Below 4.9% at 88%, then Below 4.8% at 62% and Below 4.7% at 44%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Below 4.9%: up 5 pts in 24 hours, up 8 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$516k in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $54k in open positions (open interest) and $27k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:53 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

Related markets

Odds today

Read first