PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works
Economy
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
77%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$1.6M
- 24h$736
- Liquidity$13k
- Open interest$25k
- Closesin 425d
- $800B
- $1T
- $1.2T
- $1.4T
In short
- $800B, the favourite in "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___", trades at 77% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 21:21 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: down 5 pts.
- Traded: $1.6M in total, $736 in 24 hours; open interest $25k; liquidity $13k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on $800B 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800B | 77% | down 1 | 1.30 | -330 | ||
| $1T | 62% | down 4 | 1.61 | -163 | ||
| $1.2T | 59% | down 1 | 1.71 | -141 | ||
| $1.4T | 57% | down 3 | 1.74 | -135 | ||
| $1.6T | 36% | down 1 | 2.8 | +182 | ||
| $2T | 35% | down 4 | 2.9 | +186 | ||
| $1.8T | 30% | down 6 | 3.3 | +233 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
$1.8T30%
$1T62%
$2T35%
Timeline of big moves
· $800B up 6 pts (69% to 76%)
· $800B down 5 pts (78% to 72%)
· $800B down 6 pts (80% to 75%)
· $800B down 6 pts (85% to 79%)
· $800B up 9 pts (79% to 88%)
· $800B up 4 pts (75% to 79%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- Thin book: about $13k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 77% means about 77¢ a share and roughly 1.30x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 21:21 UTC, $800B at 77%, then $1T at 62% and $1.2T at 59%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
$800B: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and down 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 21:21 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 425 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.6M in total and $736 in the last 24 hours, with about $25k in open positions (open interest) and $13k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 21:21 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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